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Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate

Author

Listed:
  • Shujun Li

    (Ocean University of China
    Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Yiting Wang

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Tao Geng

    (Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Xiamen University)

  • Bolan Gan

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Zhao Jing

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Yun Yang

    (Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a basin-scale mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse warming affects AMV remains unclear. Here, using models with multicentury-long outputs of future climate, we find an intensified AMV under greenhouse warming. Surface warming and freshwater input from sea-ice melt increase surface buoyancy, leading to a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Reduced vertical mixing associated with suppressed oceanic deep convection results in a thinned mixed layer and its variability, favouring stronger AMV SST variability. Further, a weakened AMOC and the associated northward heat transport prolong the lifespan of the AMV, providing a long time for the AMV to grow. Thus, multidecadal global surface fluctuations and the associated climate extremes are likely to be more intense.

Suggested Citation

  • Shujun Li & Lixin Wu & Yiting Wang & Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Bolan Gan & Zhao Jing & Yun Yang, 2025. "Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(3), pages 293-300, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02252-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02252-x
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