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A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuele Bevacqua

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Jakob Zscheischler

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ
    TUD Dresden University of Technology)

Abstract

The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Bevacqua & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Jakob Zscheischler, 2025. "A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(3), pages 262-265, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02246-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9
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