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The changing nature of future Arctic marine heatwaves and its potential impacts on the ecosystem

Author

Listed:
  • Ruijian Gou

    (Ocean University of China
    Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Klara K. E. Wolf

    (Universität Hamburg
    University of Konstanz)

  • Clara J. M. Hoppe

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China
    Laoshan Laboratory)

  • Gerrit Lohmann

    (Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Bremen)

Abstract

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), defined as extreme ocean warming episodes, have strengthened over the past decades. High-resolution climate models improve understanding of MHWs under global warming, but such events in the future Arctic are currently overlooked. In a high-resolution climate model, we find Arctic MHWs intensify on orders of magnitude during the warming twenty-first century, following sea ice retreat. However, with little sea ice coverage, strong interannual variability emerges, which could surpass the amplitude of former intensification. Furthermore, the enhancement of MHWs correlates with an order of magnitude increase in the rate of change in the temperature anomaly. Additionally, MHWs are found to be accompanied by stratification enhancement, which could surpass interannual variability of future stratification. Such extreme temperature fluctuations combined with stratification enhancement suggest major challenges for Arctic ecosystems, and may negatively impact food webs through direct physiological temperature effects, as well as indirectly through nutrient supply and taxonomic shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruijian Gou & Klara K. E. Wolf & Clara J. M. Hoppe & Lixin Wu & Gerrit Lohmann, 2025. "The changing nature of future Arctic marine heatwaves and its potential impacts on the ecosystem," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(2), pages 162-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02224-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02224-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiuwen Guo & Yang Gao & Shaoqing Zhang & Lixin Wu & Ping Chang & Wenju Cai & Jakob Zscheischler & L. Ruby Leung & Justin Small & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Luanne Thompson & Huiwang Gao, 2022. "Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 179-186, February.
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