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Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick L. Barnard

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Kevin M. Befus

    (University of Arkansas)

  • Jeffrey J. Danielson

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Anita C. Engelstad

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Li H. Erikson

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Amy C. Foxgrover

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Maya K. Hayden

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Daniel J. Hoover

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Tim W. B. Leijnse

    (Deltares)

  • Chris Massey

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

  • Robert McCall

    (Deltares USA)

  • Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo

    (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

  • Kees Nederhoff

    (Deltares USA)

  • Andrea C. O’Neill

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Kai A. Parker

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Manoochehr Shirzaei

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Leonard O. Ohenhen

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Peter W. Swarzenski

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Jennifer A. Thomas

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Maarten Ormondt

    (Deltares USA)

  • Sean Vitousek

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Kilian Vos

    (UNSW Sydney)

  • Nathan J. Wood

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Jeanne M. Jones

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

  • Jamie L. Jones

    (U.S. Geological Survey)

Abstract

Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple hazards along the Southeast Atlantic coast of the United States. Assuming 1 m of sea level rise, more than 70% of the coastal residents and US$1 trillion in property are in areas projected to experience shallow and emerging groundwater, 15 times higher than daily flooding. Storms increase flooding exposure by an order of magnitude over daily flooding, which could impact up to ~50% of all coastal residents and US$770 billion in property value. The loss of up to ~80% of present-day beaches and high subsidence rates that currently affect over 1 million residents will exacerbate flooding and groundwater hazard risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick L. Barnard & Kevin M. Befus & Jeffrey J. Danielson & Anita C. Engelstad & Li H. Erikson & Amy C. Foxgrover & Maya K. Hayden & Daniel J. Hoover & Tim W. B. Leijnse & Chris Massey & Robert McCal, 2025. "Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 101-109, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02180-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02180-2
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