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Conventional agriculture increases global warming while decreasing system sustainability

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed I. Abdo

    (South China Agricultural University
    Shaoguan University
    Zagazig University)

  • Daolin Sun

    (South China Agricultural University
    South China Agricultural University
    Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Centre of Modern Eco-agriculture and Circular Agriculture)

  • Zhaoji Shi

    (South China Agricultural University
    South China Agricultural University
    Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Centre of Modern Eco-agriculture and Circular Agriculture)

  • Mohamed K. Abdel-Fattah

    (Zagazig University)

  • Jiaen Zhang

    (South China Agricultural University
    South China Agricultural University
    Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Centre of Modern Eco-agriculture and Circular Agriculture
    South China Agricultural University)

  • Yakov Kuzyakov

    (Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University)
    University of Goettingen)

Abstract

Intensification of farming since the Green Revolution has led to large increases in yield but has also increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Here, by providing a global comprehensive cradle-to-gate quantification from seed to yield, we show that the global warming potential (GWP) of conventional agriculture of grain crops has increased eightfold from 1961 to 2020, whereas the sustainability index (SI) has decreased threefold. Tillage, synthetic fertilizers and irrigation together accounted for 90% of the increased GWP, linked to tenfold increases in fertilization and groundwater use and more than doubled mechanized and irrigated areas. We highlight regions with high GWP and low SI, such as South Asia, and project further threefold increases in agriculture GWP by 2100 compared with 2020 (3.3 ± 0.73 PgCO2e) driven by declined use efficiency of the inputs. Green energy and climate-smart agriculture techniques can reduce the projected GWP in 2100 to 2.3 PgCO2e and increase the SI fourfold.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed I. Abdo & Daolin Sun & Zhaoji Shi & Mohamed K. Abdel-Fattah & Jiaen Zhang & Yakov Kuzyakov, 2025. "Conventional agriculture increases global warming while decreasing system sustainability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 110-117, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02170-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02170-4
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