Author
Listed:
- Christoph Bertram
(University of Maryland
Member of the Leibniz Association)
- Elina Brutschin
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))
- Laurent Drouet
(CMCC Foundation–Euro-Mediterraneaen Center on Climate Change
RFF-CMCC European Institute of Economics and the Environment)
- Gunnar Luderer
(Member of the Leibniz Association
Technische Universität Berlin)
- Bas Ruijven
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))
- Lara Aleluia Reis
(CMCC Foundation–Euro-Mediterraneaen Center on Climate Change
RFF-CMCC European Institute of Economics and the Environment)
- Luiz Bernardo Baptista
(Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
- Harmen-Sytze Boer
(Netherland’s Environmental Agency (PBL))
- Ryna Cui
(University of Maryland)
- Vassilis Daioglou
(Netherland’s Environmental Agency (PBL)
Utrecht University)
- Florian Fosse
(Joint Research Centre (JRC))
- Dimitris Fragkiadakis
(E3Modelling)
- Oliver Fricko
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))
- Shinichiro Fujimori
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Kyoto University
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))
- Nate Hultman
(University of Maryland)
- Gokul Iyer
(University of Maryland
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland)
- Kimon Keramidas
(Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Université Grenoble Alpes)
- Volker Krey
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA))
- Elmar Kriegler
(Member of the Leibniz Association
University of Potsdam)
- Robin D. Lamboll
(Imperial College London)
- Rahel Mandaroux
(Member of the Leibniz Association)
- Pedro Rochedo
(Khalifa University)
- Joeri Rogelj
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Imperial College London)
- Roberto Schaeffer
(Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
- Diego Silva
(National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES))
- Isabela Tagomori
(Netherland’s Environmental Agency (PBL))
- Detlef Vuuren
(Netherland’s Environmental Agency (PBL)
Utrecht University)
- Zoi Vrontisi
(E3Modelling)
- Keywan Riahi
(International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Graz University of Technology)
Abstract
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6 °C (‘low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, feasibility constraints, especially in the institutional dimension, decrease this maximum likelihood considerably to 5–45%. Accelerated energy demand transformation can reduce costs for staying below 2 °C but have only a limited impact on further increasing the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.6 °C. Our study helps to establish a new benchmark of mitigation scenarios that goes beyond the dominant cost-effective scenario design.
Suggested Citation
Christoph Bertram & Elina Brutschin & Laurent Drouet & Gunnar Luderer & Bas Ruijven & Lara Aleluia Reis & Luiz Bernardo Baptista & Harmen-Sytze Boer & Ryna Cui & Vassilis Daioglou & Florian Fosse & Di, 2024.
"Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints,"
Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(9), pages 954-960, September.
Handle:
RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02073-4
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02073-4
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