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Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica S. Wan

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Chih-Chieh Jack Chen

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Simone Tilmes

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Matthew T. Luongo

    (University of California San Diego)

  • Jadwiga H. Richter

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Katharine Ricke

    (University of California San Diego
    University of California San Diego)

Abstract

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a geoengineering proposal to cool atmospheric temperatures and reduce climate change impacts. As large-scale approaches to stabilize global mean temperatures pose governance challenges, regional interventions may be more attractive near term. Here we investigate the efficacy of regional MCB in the North Pacific to mitigate extreme heat in the Western United States. Under present-day conditions, we find MCB in the remote mid-latitudes or proximate subtropics reduces the relative risk of dangerous summer heat exposure by 55% and 16%, respectively. However, the same interventions under mid-century warming minimally reduce or even increase heat stress in the Western United States and across the world. This loss of efficacy may arise from a state-dependent response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to both anthropogenic warming and regional MCB. Our result demonstrates a risk in assuming that interventions effective under certain conditions will remain effective as the climate continues to change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica S. Wan & Chih-Chieh Jack Chen & Simone Tilmes & Matthew T. Luongo & Jadwiga H. Richter & Katharine Ricke, 2024. "Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(8), pages 808-814, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02046-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02046-7
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