Author
Listed:
- Jan Nitzbon
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
- Thomas Schneider von Deimling
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
- Mehriban Aliyeva
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
- Sarah E. Chadburn
(University of Exeter)
- Guido Grosse
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
University of Potsdam)
- Sebastian Laboor
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
- Hanna Lee
(Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
- Gerrit Lohmann
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
University of Bremen)
- Norman J. Steinert
(NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS
CICERO Center for International Climate Research)
- Simone M. Stuenzi
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
- Martin Werner
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)
- Sebastian Westermann
(University of Oslo
University of Oslo)
- Moritz Langer
(Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Abstract
Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide an integrative Perspective on this question, suggesting that despite several permafrost-thaw feedbacks driving rapid thaw and irreversible ground-ice loss at local to regional scales, the accumulated response of Arctic permafrost to climate warming remains quasilinear. We argue that in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable. Instead, each increment of global warming subjects more land areas underlain by permafrost to thaw, causing detrimental local impacts and global feedbacks.
Suggested Citation
Jan Nitzbon & Thomas Schneider von Deimling & Mehriban Aliyeva & Sarah E. Chadburn & Guido Grosse & Sebastian Laboor & Hanna Lee & Gerrit Lohmann & Norman J. Steinert & Simone M. Stuenzi & Martin Wern, 2024.
"No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point,"
Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 573-585, June.
Handle:
RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02011-4
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
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