IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v14y2024i6d10.1038_s41558-024-02011-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Nitzbon

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Thomas Schneider von Deimling

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Mehriban Aliyeva

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Sarah E. Chadburn

    (University of Exeter)

  • Guido Grosse

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Potsdam)

  • Sebastian Laboor

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Hanna Lee

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Gerrit Lohmann

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    University of Bremen)

  • Norman J. Steinert

    (NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS
    CICERO Center for International Climate Research)

  • Simone M. Stuenzi

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Martin Werner

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Sebastian Westermann

    (University of Oslo
    University of Oslo)

  • Moritz Langer

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
    Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide an integrative Perspective on this question, suggesting that despite several permafrost-thaw feedbacks driving rapid thaw and irreversible ground-ice loss at local to regional scales, the accumulated response of Arctic permafrost to climate warming remains quasilinear. We argue that in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable. Instead, each increment of global warming subjects more land areas underlain by permafrost to thaw, causing detrimental local impacts and global feedbacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Nitzbon & Thomas Schneider von Deimling & Mehriban Aliyeva & Sarah E. Chadburn & Guido Grosse & Sebastian Laboor & Hanna Lee & Gerrit Lohmann & Norman J. Steinert & Simone M. Stuenzi & Martin Wern, 2024. "No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 573-585, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02011-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02011-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02011-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.