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High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

Author

Listed:
  • Gaopeng Xu

    (Texas A&M University)

  • M. Cameron Rencurrel

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Ping Chang

    (Texas A&M University
    Texas A&M University)

  • Xiaoqing Liu

    (Texas A&M University
    Purdue University)

  • Gokhan Danabasoglu

    (National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Stephen G. Yeager

    (National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Michael Steele

    (University of Washington)

  • Wilbert Weijer

    (Los Alamos National Laboratory
    University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Yuchen Li

    (Stanford University)

  • Nan Rosenbloom

    (National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Frederic Castruccio

    (National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Qiuying Zhang

    (Texas A&M University)

Abstract

The Arctic region has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, with far-reaching global implications. However, model projections of Arctic warming rates are uncertain and one key component is the ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic Ocean. Here we use high-resolution historical and future climate simulations to show that the OHT through the Bering Strait exerts a more substantial influence on Arctic warming than previously recognized. The high-resolution ensemble exhibits a 20% larger warming rate for 2006–2100 compared with standard low-resolution model simulations. The enhanced Arctic warming in the high-resolution simulations is primarily attributable to an increased OHT through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait that is nearly four times larger than in the low-resolution simulations. Consequently, the projected rate of Arctic warming by low-resolution climate simulations is likely to be underestimated due to the model resolution being insufficient to capture future changes in Bering Strait OHT.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaopeng Xu & M. Cameron Rencurrel & Ping Chang & Xiaoqing Liu & Gokhan Danabasoglu & Stephen G. Yeager & Michael Steele & Wilbert Weijer & Yuchen Li & Nan Rosenbloom & Frederic Castruccio & Qiuying Zh, 2024. "High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(6), pages 615-622, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02008-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing Duan & Yuanlong Li & Yilong Lyu & Zhao Jing & Fan Wang, 2025. "Emergence of the North Pacific heat storage pattern delayed by decadal wind-driven redistribution," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.

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