Author
Listed:
- Michael Dietze
(Boston University)
- Ethan P. White
(University of Florida)
- Antoinette Abeyta
(University of New Mexico Gallup)
- Carl Boettiger
(University of California, Berkeley)
- Nievita Bueno Watts
(Cal Poly Humboldt)
- Cayelan C. Carey
(Virginia Tech)
- Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
(WWF
University of Minnesota)
- Ryan E. Emanuel
(Duke University)
- S. K. Morgan Ernest
(University of Florida)
- Renato J. Figueiredo
(Oregon State University)
- Michael D. Gerst
(University of Maryland)
- Leah R. Johnson
(Virginia Tech)
- Melissa A. Kenney
(University of Minnesota)
- Jason S. McLachlan
(University of Notre Dame)
- Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis
(Boston University)
- Jody A. Peters
(University of Notre Dame)
- Christine R. Rollinson
(The Morton Arboretum)
- Juniper Simonis
(DAPPER Stats)
- Kira Sullivan-Wiley
(The Pew Charitable Trusts)
- R. Quinn Thomas
(Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech)
- Glenda M. Wardle
(University of Sydney)
- Alyssa M. Willson
(University of Notre Dame)
- Jacob Zwart
(Water Mission Area, US Geological Survey)
Abstract
A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.
Suggested Citation
Michael Dietze & Ethan P. White & Antoinette Abeyta & Carl Boettiger & Nievita Bueno Watts & Cayelan C. Carey & Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer & Ryan E. Emanuel & S. K. Morgan Ernest & Renato J. Figueiredo & , 2024.
"Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action,"
Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(12), pages 1236-1244, December.
Handle:
RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02182-0
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0
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