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Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Chae Yeon Park

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Kiyoshi Takahashi

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Shinichiro Fujimori

    (Kyoto University)

  • Thanapat Jansakoo

    (Kyoto University)

  • Chantelle Burton

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Huilin Huang

    (Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division)

  • Sian Kou-Giesbrecht

    (Dalhousie University)

  • Christopher P. O. Reyer

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Matthias Mengel

    (Member of the Leibniz Association)

  • Eleanor Burke

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Fang Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Stijn Hantson

    (Universidad del Rosario)

  • Junya Takakura

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Dong Kun Lee

    (Seoul National University)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (Ritsumeikan University)

Abstract

Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Chae Yeon Park & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Shinichiro Fujimori & Thanapat Jansakoo & Chantelle Burton & Huilin Huang & Sian Kou-Giesbrecht & Christopher P. O. Reyer & Matthias Mengel & Eleanor Burke & Fang , 2024. "Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(11), pages 1193-1200, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02149-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1
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