Author
Listed:
- Chantelle Burton
(Met Office Hadley Centre)
- Seppe Lampe
(Department of Water and Climate)
- Douglas I. Kelley
(UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)
- Wim Thiery
(Department of Water and Climate)
- Stijn Hantson
(Universidad del Rosario)
- Nikos Christidis
(Met Office Hadley Centre)
- Lukas Gudmundsson
(ETH Zurich)
- Matthew Forrest
(Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre)
- Eleanor Burke
(Met Office Hadley Centre)
- Jinfeng Chang
(Zhejiang University)
- Huilin Huang
(Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)
- Akihiko Ito
(National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
The University of Tokyo)
- Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
(Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences)
- Gitta Lasslop
(Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre)
- Wei Li
(Tsinghua University)
- Lars Nieradzik
(Lund University)
- Fang Li
(Chinese Academy of Sciences)
- Yang Chen
(University of California)
- James Randerson
(University of California)
- Christopher P. O. Reyer
(Member of the Leibniz Association)
- Matthias Mengel
(Member of the Leibniz Association)
Abstract
Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.
Suggested Citation
Chantelle Burton & Seppe Lampe & Douglas I. Kelley & Wim Thiery & Stijn Hantson & Nikos Christidis & Lukas Gudmundsson & Matthew Forrest & Eleanor Burke & Jinfeng Chang & Huilin Huang & Akihiko Ito & , 2024.
"Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change,"
Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(11), pages 1186-1192, November.
Handle:
RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02140-w
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
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