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Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Jiangdong Liu

    (Fudan University)

  • Jinlei Qi

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Peng Yin

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Wei Liu

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Cheng He

    (Fudan University)

  • Ya Gao

    (Fudan University)

  • Lu Zhou

    (Fudan University)

  • Yixiang Zhu

    (Fudan University)

  • Haidong Kan

    (Fudan University)

  • Renjie Chen

    (Fudan University)

  • Maigeng Zhou

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

Abstract

Global warming shifts daytime-only heatwaves to nighttime-only and day–night compound heatwaves. However, evidence on the cause-specific burdens of these heatwaves in a changing climate and ageing population is limited. Here, by analysing 1,088,742 non-accidental deaths from 272 Chinese cities, we found that compound heatwaves posed significantly higher cardiopulmonary mortality risks and burdens than daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, particularly for ischaemic stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and regions with high summer temperature variation. Projections suggested substantial increases in compound heatwave-related mortality (4.0–7.6-fold) by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, outpacing nighttime-only heatwaves (0.7–1.9-fold) and contrasting with decreasing daytime heatwave-related mortality (0.3–0.8-fold). A strict emission control scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9) may reverse most heatwave-related mortality increases. The confluence of global warming and ageing amplifies heatwave-related burdens, outstripping the sum of their individual impacts. Our findings underscore the importance of addressing compound heatwaves amid global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiangdong Liu & Jinlei Qi & Peng Yin & Wei Liu & Cheng He & Ya Gao & Lu Zhou & Yixiang Zhu & Haidong Kan & Renjie Chen & Maigeng Zhou, 2024. "Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(11), pages 1201-1209, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02137-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02137-5
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