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Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users

Author

Listed:
  • Robert E. Kopp

    (Rutgers University)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

  • Jessica L. O’Reilly

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

  • Sybren S. Drijfhout

    (NIOZ Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
    Utrecht University)

  • Tamsin L. Edwards

    (King’s College London)

  • Baylor Fox-Kemper

    (Brown University)

  • Gregory G. Garner

    (Rutgers University
    Gro Intelligence)

  • Nicholas R. Golledge

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Tim H. J. Hermans

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
    Utrecht University)

  • Helene T. Hewitt

    (Met Office)

  • Benjamin P. Horton

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Gerhard Krinner

    (Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement)

  • Dirk Notz

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Sophie Nowicki

    (University at Buffalo)

  • Matthew D. Palmer

    (Met Office
    University of Bristol)

  • Aimée B. A. Slangen

    (Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research)

  • Cunde Xiao

    (Beijing Normal University)

Abstract

Future sea-level change is characterized by both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties. Effective communication of both types of uncertainty is a key challenge in translating sea-level science to inform long-term coastal planning. Scientific assessments play a key role in the translation process and have taken diverse approaches to communicating sea-level projection uncertainty. Here we review how past IPCC and regional assessments have presented sea-level projection uncertainty, how IPCC presentations have been interpreted by regional assessments and how regional assessments and policy guidance simplify projections for practical use. This information influenced the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report presentation of quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, with the goal of preserving both elements as projections are adapted for regional application.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Jessica L. O’Reilly & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Tamsin L. Edwards & Baylor Fox-Kemper & Gregory G. Garner & Nicholas R. Golledge & Tim H. J. Hermans & Helene T. Hewi, 2023. "Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(7), pages 648-660, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01691-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8
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