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Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts

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  • Dazhi Xi

    (Princeton University)

  • Ning Lin

    (Princeton University)

  • Avantika Gori

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

Two tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall close together can induce sequential hazards to coastal areas. Here we investigate the change in sequential TC hazards in the historical and future projected climates. We find that the chance of sequential TC hazards has been increasing over the past several decades at many US locations. Under the high (moderate) emission scenario, the chance of hazards from two TCs impacting the same location within 15 days may substantially increase, with the return period decreasing over the century from 10–92 years to ~1–2 (1–3) years along the US East and Gulf coasts, due to sea-level rise and storm climatology change. Climate change can also cause unprecedented compounding of extreme hazards at the regional level. A Katrina-like TC and a Harvey-like TC impacting the United States within 15 days of each other, which is non-existent in the control simulation for over 1,000 years, is projected to have an annual occurrence probability of more than 1% by the end of the century under the high emission scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Dazhi Xi & Ning Lin & Avantika Gori, 2023. "Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(3), pages 258-265, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01595-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Zanin, Luca & Calabrese, Raffaella & Thorburn, Connor Innes, 2024. "Climate stress testing for mortgage default probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

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