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Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets

Author

Listed:
  • Robin D. Lamboll

    (Imperial College London)

  • Zebedee R. J. Nicholls

    (The University of Melbourne
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Christopher J. Smith

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Met Office Hadley Centre
    University of Leeds)

  • Jarmo S. Kikstra

    (Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Imperial College London)

  • Edward Byers

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Imperial College London
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    Imperial College London)

Abstract

The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5 °C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5 °C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2 °C the RCB is around 1,200 GtCO2. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero CO2.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin D. Lamboll & Zebedee R. J. Nicholls & Christopher J. Smith & Jarmo S. Kikstra & Edward Byers & Joeri Rogelj, 2023. "Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(12), pages 1360-1367, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01848-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Hahn & Johannes Morfeldt & Robert Höglund & Mikael Karlsson & Ingo Fetzer, 2024. "Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Lea Dorgeist & Clemens Schwingshackl & Selma Bultan & Julia Pongratz, 2024. "A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Grasiele Romanzini-Bezerra & Amanda C. Maycock, 2024. "Projected rapid response of stratospheric temperature to stringent climate mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-6, December.
    4. Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah & Chao Jin & Haifeng Liu & Mingfa Yao & Sandylove Afrane & Humphrey Adun & Jay Fuhrman & David T. Ho & Haewon McJeon, 2024. "Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Shuai Ren & Tao Wang & Bertrand Guenet & Dan Liu & Yingfang Cao & Jinzhi Ding & Pete Smith & Shilong Piao, 2024. "Projected soil carbon loss with warming in constrained Earth system models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. Oskar Lindgren & Erik Elwing & Mikael Karlsson & Sverker C. Jagers, 2024. "Public acceptability of climate-motivated rationing," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.

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