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Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Wang

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Weiyi Sun

    (Nanjing Normal University
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Chunhan Jin

    (Xinjiang University)

  • Xiao Luo

    (University of Hawaii
    University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Young-Min Yang

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Tim Li

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Baoqiang Xiang

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

  • Michael J. McPhaden

    (NOAA/Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory)

  • Mark A. Cane

    (Columbia University)

  • Feifei Jin

    (University of Hawaii)

  • Fei Liu

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Jian Liu

    (Nanjing Normal University)

Abstract

Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more common remains unknown. Here we show that ten multiyear La Niña events over the past century had an accelerated trend, with eight of these occurring after 1970. The two types of multiyear La Niña events over this time period followed either a super El Niño or a central Pacific El Niño. We find that multiyear La Niña events differ from single-year La Niñas by a prominent onset rate, which is rooted in the western Pacific warming-enhanced zonal advective feedback for the central Pacific multiyear La Niña events type and thermocline feedback for the super El Niño multiyear La Niña events type. The results from large ensemble climate simulations support the observed multiyear La Niña events–western Pacific warming link. More multiyear La Niña events will exacerbate adverse socioeconomic impacts if the western Pacific continues to warm relative to the central Pacific.

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Wang & Weiyi Sun & Chunhan Jin & Xiao Luo & Young-Min Yang & Tim Li & Baoqiang Xiang & Michael J. McPhaden & Mark A. Cane & Feifei Jin & Fei Liu & Jian Liu, 2023. "Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(10), pages 1075-1081, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:13:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-023-01801-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01801-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Hesham M. Ibrahim & Abdulaziz G. Alghamdi & Anwar A. Aly, 2024. "Assessing Drought Patterns in Al-Baha: Implications for Water Resources and Climate Adaptation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-26, November.

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