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Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Lander R. Crespo

    (University of Bergen
    University of Bergen)

  • Arthur Prigent

    (GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel)

  • Noel Keenlyside

    (University of Bergen
    University of Bergen
    Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre)

  • Shunya Koseki

    (University of Bergen
    University of Bergen)

  • Lea Svendsen

    (University of Bergen
    University of Bergen)

  • Ingo Richter

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, JAMSTEC)

  • Emilia Sánchez-Gómez

    (Université de Toulouse-Cerfacs-CNRS)

Abstract

The Atlantic Niño is one of the most important patterns of interannual tropical climate variability, but how climate change will influence this pattern is not well known due to large climate model biases. Here we show that state-of-the-art climate models robustly predict a weakening of Atlantic Niños in response to global warming, mainly due to a decoupling of subsurface and surface temperature variations as the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean warms. This weakening is predicted by most (>80%) models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 under the highest emission scenarios. Our results indicate a reduction in variability by the end of the century by 14%, and as much as 24–48% when accounting for model errors using a simple emergent constraint analysis. Such a weakening of Atlantic Niño variability will potentially impact climate conditions and the skill of seasonal predictions in many regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lander R. Crespo & Arthur Prigent & Noel Keenlyside & Shunya Koseki & Lea Svendsen & Ingo Richter & Emilia Sánchez-Gómez, 2022. "Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 822-827, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01453-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01453-y
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