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Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming

Author

Listed:
  • Yun Yang

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • Lixin Wu

    (Ocean University of China
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Fan Jia

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Benjamin Ng

    (CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Guojian Wang

    (Ocean University of China
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Tao Geng

    (Ocean University of China
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology)

Abstract

The Atlantic Niño/Niña is a dominant mode of interannual variability peaking in boreal summer with substantial climate impacts. How the Atlantic Niño/Niña sea surface temperature (SST) variability may change under greenhouse warming remains unclear. Here we find a robust suppression in future Atlantic Niño/Niña variability in models that simulate a reasonable mean climatology of the equatorial Atlantic. Under greenhouse warming, the equatorial Atlantic atmosphere becomes more stable, reducing sensitivity of the equatorial zonal winds to the zonal SST gradient; further, weakened trade winds lead to a deepened thermocline in the east, reducing SST sensitivity to thermocline anomalies. These changes feed into Bjerknes feedback to cause suppression in Atlantic Niño/Niña SST variability. These findings are in stark contrast to the Pacific and the Indian Ocean where El Niño/La Niña SST variability and strong Indian Ocean Dipole variability are projected to increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun Yang & Lixin Wu & Wenju Cai & Fan Jia & Benjamin Ng & Guojian Wang & Tao Geng, 2022. "Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 814-821, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01444-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01444-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Shunya Koseki & Jerry Tjiputra & Filippa Fransner & Lander R. Crespo & Noel S. Keenlyside, 2023. "Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.

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