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Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Berrill

    (Yale University
    Technische Universität Berlin
    Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change)

  • Eric J. H. Wilson

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Janet L. Reyna

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Anthony D. Fontanini

    (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

  • Edgar G. Hertwich

    (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Residential GHG emissions in the United States are driven in part by a housing stock where onsite fossil combustion is common, home sizes are large by international standards, energy efficiency potential is large and electricity generation in many regions is GHG intensive. In this analysis, we assess decarbonization pathways for the US residential sector to 2060, through 108 scenarios describing housing stock evolution, new housing characteristics, renovation levels and clean electricity. The lowest emission pathways involve very rapid decarbonization of electricity supply alongside extensive renovations to existing homes, including improving thermal envelopes and heat pump electrification of heating. Reducing the size and increasing the electrification of new homes provide further emission cuts and combining all strategies enables reductions of 91% between 2020 and 2050. The potential of individual mitigation strategies shows great regional variation. Reaching zero emissions will require simultaneous deployment of multiple strategies and greater reduction of embodied emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Berrill & Eric J. H. Wilson & Janet L. Reyna & Anthony D. Fontanini & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2022. "Decarbonization pathways for the residential sector in the United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(8), pages 712-718, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01429-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01429-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Al Kez, Dlzar & Foley, Aoife & Abdul, Zrar Khald & Del Rio, Dylan Furszyfer, 2024. "Energy poverty prediction in the United Kingdom: A machine learning approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Alina Galimshina & Maliki Moustapha & Alexander Hollberg & Sébastien Lasvaux & Bruno Sudret & Guillaume Habert, 2024. "Strategies for robust renovation of residential buildings in Switzerland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Yan, Ran & Ma, Minda & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Xiang, Xiwang & Mao, Chao, 2023. "Towards COP27: Decarbonization patterns of residential building in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    4. Zhang, Hongji & Ding, Tao & Sun, Yuge & Huang, Yuhan & He, Yuankang & Huang, Can & Li, Fangxing & Xue, Chen & Sun, Xiaoqiang, 2023. "How does load-side re-electrification help carbon neutrality in energy systems: Cost competitiveness analysis and life-cycle deduction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Barbara Widera, 2024. "Energy and Carbon Savings in European Households Resulting from Behavioral Changes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-36, August.
    6. David Frantz & Franz Schug & Dominik Wiedenhofer & André Baumgart & Doris Virág & Sam Cooper & Camila Gómez-Medina & Fabian Lehmann & Thomas Udelhoven & Sebastian Linden & Patrick Hostert & Helmut Hab, 2023. "Unveiling patterns in human dominated landscapes through mapping the mass of US built structures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Mayer, Kevin & Haas, Lukas & Huang, Tianyuan & Bernabé-Moreno, Juan & Rajagopal, Ram & Fischer, Martin, 2023. "Estimating building energy efficiency from street view imagery, aerial imagery, and land surface temperature data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    8. Zhang, Shufan & Zhou, Nan & Feng, Wei & Ma, Minda & Xiang, Xiwang & You, Kairui, 2023. "Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).

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