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Precipitation efficiency constraint on climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan L. Li

    (Yale University)

  • Joshua H. P. Studholme

    (Yale University)

  • Alexey V. Fedorov

    (Yale University)

  • Trude Storelvmo

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Precipitation efficiency (PE) relates cloud condensation to precipitation and intrinsically binds atmospheric circulation to the hydrological cycle. Due to PE’s inherent microphysical dependencies, definitions and estimates vary immensely. Consequently, PE’s sensitivity to greenhouse warming and implications for climate change are poorly understood. Here, we quantify PE’s role in climate change by defining a simple index ϵ as the ratio of surface precipitation to condensed water path. This macroscopic metric is reconcilable with microphysical PE measures and higher ϵ is associated with stronger mean Walker circulation. We further find that state-of-the-art climate models disagree on the sign and magnitude of future ϵ changes. This sign disagreement originates from models’ convective parameterizations. Critically, models with increasing ϵ under greenhouse warming, in line with cloud-resolving simulations, show greater slowdown of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations and a two-fold greater increase in extreme rainfall than models with decreasing ϵ.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan L. Li & Joshua H. P. Studholme & Alexey V. Fedorov & Trude Storelvmo, 2022. "Precipitation efficiency constraint on climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 642-648, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01400-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01400-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Louis T.W. & Shen, Jianfu & Wojewodzki, Michal, 2023. "A cross-country analysis of corporate carbon performance: An international investment perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Erdogan, Sinan & Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu, 2023. "The role of renewable and nuclear energy R&D expenditures and income on environmental quality in Germany: Scrutinizing the EKC and LCC hypotheses with smooth structural changes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    3. Albà, C.G. & Alkhatib, I.I.I. & Llovell, F. & Vega, L.F., 2023. "Hunting sustainable refrigerants fulfilling technical, environmental, safety and economic requirements," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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