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Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

Author

Listed:
  • M. T. Dvorak

    (University of Washington)

  • K. C. Armour

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • D. M. W. Frierson

    (University of Washington)

  • C. Proistosescu

    (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
    University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign)

  • M. B. Baker

    (University of Washington)

  • C. J. Smith

    (University of Leeds
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

Abstract

Following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, decreases in short-lived aerosols would lead to a warming peak within a decade, followed by slow cooling as GHG concentrations decline. This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily crossing warming levels before reaching them. Here we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change following cessation of emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080 following eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Assuming a medium-emissions trajectory (SSP2–4.5), we find that we are already committed to peak warming greater than 1.5 °C with 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029 (340 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Probability of peak warming greater than 2.0 °C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Because climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decline, committed warming of 1.5 °C in 2100 will not occur with at least 66% probability until 2055.

Suggested Citation

  • M. T. Dvorak & K. C. Armour & D. M. W. Frierson & C. Proistosescu & M. B. Baker & C. J. Smith, 2022. "Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(6), pages 547-552, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01372-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Van Vyve, Mathieu, 2024. "Identifying when thresholds from the Paris Agreement are breached : the minmax average, a novel smoothing approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024004, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Christopher J. Smith & Alaa Al Khourdajie & Pu Yang & Doris Folini, 2023. "Climate uncertainty impacts on optimal mitigation pathways and social cost of carbon," Papers 2304.08957, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.

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