IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v12y2022i5d10.1038_s41558-022-01327-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The critical benefits of snowpack insulation and snowmelt for winter wheat productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Peng Zhu

    (CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers
    Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Taegon Kim

    (University of Minnesota
    Jeonbuk National University)

  • Zhenong Jin

    (University of Minnesota
    University of Minnesota)

  • Chenxi Lin

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Xuhui Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers)

  • Nathaniel D. Mueller

    (Colorado State University
    Colorado State University)

  • Amir Aghakouchak

    (University of California)

  • Jianxi Huang

    (China Agricultural University)

  • David Mulla

    (University of Minnesota)

  • David Makowski

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

Abstract

How climate change will affect overwintering crops is largely unknown due to the complex and understudied interactions among temperature, rainfall and snowpack. Increases in average winter temperature should release cold limitations yet warming-induced reductions of snowpack thickness should lead to decreased insulation effects and more exposure to freezing. Here, using statistical models, we show that the presence of snowpack weakens yield sensitivity to freezing stress by 22% during 1999–2019. By 2080–2100, we project that reduced snow cover insulation will offset up to one-third of the yield benefit (8.8 ± 1.1% for RCP 4.5 and 11.8 ± 1.4% for RCP 8.5) from reduced frost stress across the United States. Furthermore, by 2080–2100 future decline in wheat growing season snowfall (source of snowmelt) will drive a yield loss greater than the yield benefit from increasing rainfall. Explicitly considering these factors is critical to predict the climate change impacts on winter wheat production in snowy regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng Zhu & Taegon Kim & Zhenong Jin & Chenxi Lin & Xuhui Wang & Philippe Ciais & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Amir Aghakouchak & Jianxi Huang & David Mulla & David Makowski, 2022. "The critical benefits of snowpack insulation and snowmelt for winter wheat productivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(5), pages 485-490, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01327-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01327-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01327-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-022-01327-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01327-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.