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Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific

Author

Listed:
  • Jun Ying

    (Ministry of Natural Resources
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    University of Exeter)

  • Matthew Collins

    (University of Exeter)

  • Wenju Cai

    (Ocean University of China
    Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM)
    CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Institute for Basic Science (IBS)
    Pusan National University)

  • Ping Huang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Dake Chen

    (Ministry of Natural Resources
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
    Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Karl Stein

    (Institute for Basic Science (IBS)
    Pusan National University)

Abstract

Future changes in the mean climate of the tropical Pacific and characteristics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are established as being likely. Determining the time of emergence of climate change signals from the natural variability is critical for mitigation strategies and adaptation planning. Here, using a multimodel ensemble, we find that the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) signal has already emerged across much of the tropical Pacific, appearing last in the east. The signal of a wetter annual-mean rainfall in the east is expected to emerge by mid-century, with some sensitivity to emission scenario. However, the ENSO-related rainfall variability signal is projected to emerge by about 2040 regardless of emission scenario, about 30 years earlier than ENSO-related SST variability signal at about 2070. Our results are instructive for the detection of climate change signals and reinforce the rapidly emerging risks of ENSO-induced climate extremes regardless of mitigation actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jun Ying & Matthew Collins & Wenju Cai & Axel Timmermann & Ping Huang & Dake Chen & Karl Stein, 2022. "Emergence of climate change in the tropical Pacific," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(4), pages 356-364, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01301-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01301-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Mingna Wu & Chao Li & Matthew Collins & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Zhongshi Zhang, 2024. "Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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