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Higher temperature extremes exacerbate negative disease effects in a social mammal

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Paniw

    (Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD-CSIC)
    University of Zurich)

  • Chris Duncan

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Frank Groenewoud

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Julian A. Drewe

    (Hawkshead Lane)

  • Marta Manser

    (University of Zurich
    Kalahari Research Trust, Kuruman River Reserve
    University of Pretoria)

  • Arpat Ozgul

    (University of Zurich)

  • Tim Clutton-Brock

    (University of Cambridge
    Kalahari Research Trust, Kuruman River Reserve
    University of Pretoria)

Abstract

One important but understudied way in which climate change may impact the fitness of individuals and populations is by altering the prevalence of infectious disease outbreaks. This is especially true in social species where endemic diseases are widespread. Here we use 22 years of demographic data from wild meerkats (Suricata suricatta) in the Kalahari, where temperatures have risen steadily, to project group persistence under interactions between weather extremes and fatal tuberculosis outbreaks caused by infection with Mycobacterium suricattae. We show that higher temperature extremes increase the risk of outbreaks within groups by increasing physiological stress as well as the dispersal of males, which are important carriers of tuberculosis. Explicitly accounting for negative effects of tuberculosis outbreaks on survival and reproduction in groups more than doubles group extinction risk in 12 years under projected temperature increases. Synergistic climate–disease effects on demographic rates may therefore rapidly intensify climate-change impacts in natural populations.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Paniw & Chris Duncan & Frank Groenewoud & Julian A. Drewe & Marta Manser & Arpat Ozgul & Tim Clutton-Brock, 2022. "Higher temperature extremes exacerbate negative disease effects in a social mammal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 284-290, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01284-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01284-x
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