IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v12y2022i3d10.1038_s41558-022-01281-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century

Author

Listed:
  • David Marcolino Nielsen

    (Universität Hamburg
    International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling)

  • Patrick Pieper

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Armineh Barkhordarian

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Paul Overduin

    (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research)

  • Tatiana Ilyina

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Victor Brovkin

    (Universität Hamburg
    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • Johanna Baehr

    (Universität Hamburg)

  • Mikhail Dobrynin

    (Universität Hamburg
    Deutscher Wetterdienst)

Abstract

Arctic coastal erosion damages infrastructure, threatens coastal communities and releases organic carbon from permafrost. However, the magnitude, timing and sensitivity of coastal erosion increase to global warming remain unknown. Here we project the Arctic-mean erosion rate to increase and very likely exceed its historical range of variability before the end of the century in a wide range of emission scenarios. The sensitivity of erosion to warming roughly doubles, reaching 0.4–0.8 m yr−1 °C−1 and 2.3–4.2 TgC yr−1 °C−1 by the end of the century. We develop a simplified semi-empirical model to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic coastal erosion rate projections. Our results will inform policymakers on coastal conservation and socioeconomic planning, and organic carbon flux projections lay out the path for future work to investigate the impact of Arctic coastal erosion on the changing Arctic Ocean, its role as a global carbon sink, and the permafrost–carbon feedback.

Suggested Citation

  • David Marcolino Nielsen & Patrick Pieper & Armineh Barkhordarian & Paul Overduin & Tatiana Ilyina & Victor Brovkin & Johanna Baehr & Mikhail Dobrynin, 2022. "Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(3), pages 263-270, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01281-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01281-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-022-01281-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shijin Wang, 2024. "Opportunities and threats of cryosphere change to the achievement of UN 2030 SDGs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Xun Zhu & Timothy J. Pasch & Mohamed Aymane Ahajjam & Aaron Bergstrom, 2022. "Environmental Monitoring for Arctic Resiliency and Sustainability: An Integrated Approach with Topic Modeling and Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Moritz Mathis & Fabrice Lacroix & Stefan Hagemann & David Marcolino Nielsen & Tatiana Ilyina & Corinna Schrum, 2024. "Enhanced CO2 uptake of the coastal ocean is dominated by biological carbon fixation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(4), pages 373-379, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01281-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.