IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v12y2022i10d10.1038_s41558-022-01479-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global decline of pelagic fauna in a warmer ocean

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Ariza

    (MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD)

  • Matthieu Lengaigne

    (MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD)

  • Christophe Menkes

    (ENTROPIE, IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de la Réunion, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie)

  • Anne Lebourges-Dhaussy

    (LEMAR, UBO, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer)

  • Aurore Receveur

    (CESAB-FRB)

  • Thomas Gorgues

    (LOPS, UBO, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer)

  • Jérémie Habasque

    (LEMAR, UBO, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer)

  • Mariano Gutiérrez

    (Instituto Humboldt de Investigación Marina y Acuícola)

  • Olivier Maury

    (MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD)

  • Arnaud Bertrand

    (MARBEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD)

Abstract

Pelagic fauna is expected to be impacted under climate change according to ecosystem simulations. However, the direction and magnitude of the impact is still uncertain and still not corroborated by observation-based statistical studies. Here we compile a global underwater sonar database and 20 ocean climate projections to predict the future distribution of sound-scattering fauna around the world’s oceans. We show that global pelagic fauna will be seriously compromised by the end of the twenty-first century if we continue under the current greenhouse emission scenario. Low and mid latitudes are expected to lose from 3% to 22% of animal biomass due to the expansion of low-productive systems, while higher latitudes would be populated by present-day temperate fauna, supporting results from ecosystem simulations. We further show that strong mitigation measures to contain global warming below 2 °C would reduce these impacts to less than half.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Ariza & Matthieu Lengaigne & Christophe Menkes & Anne Lebourges-Dhaussy & Aurore Receveur & Thomas Gorgues & Jérémie Habasque & Mariano Gutiérrez & Olivier Maury & Arnaud Bertrand, 2022. "Global decline of pelagic fauna in a warmer ocean," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(10), pages 928-934, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01479-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01479-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01479-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-022-01479-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aurore Receveur & Christophe Menkes & Matthieu Lengaigne & Alejandro Ariza & Arnaud Bertrand & Cyril Dutheil & Sophie Cravatte & Valérie Allain & Laure Barbin & Anne Lebourges-Dhaussy & Patrick Lehode, 2024. "A rare oasis effect for forage fauna in oceanic eddies at the global scale," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:10:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01479-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.