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Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2 increase

Author

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  • Ulla K. Heede

    (Yale University)

  • Alexey V. Fedorov

    (Yale University
    Sorbonne University)

Abstract

Understanding the tropical Pacific response to global warming remains challenging. Here we use a range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 greenhouse warming experiments to assess the recent and future evolution of the equatorial Pacific east–west temperature gradient and corresponding Walker circulation. In abrupt CO2-increase scenarios, many models generate an initial strengthening of this gradient resembling an ocean thermostat, followed by a small weakening; other models generate an immediate weakening that becomes progressively stronger, establishing a pronounced eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern. The initial response in these experiments is a strong predictor for the intensity of this pattern simulated in both abrupt and realistic warming scenarios, but not in historical simulations showing no multi-model-mean warming trend in this region. The likely explanation is that the recent CO2-driven changes in the tropical Pacific are masked by aerosol effects and a potential ocean-thermostat-related delay, while the eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern will emerge as greenhouse gases overcome aerosol forcing.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulla K. Heede & Alexey V. Fedorov, 2021. "Eastern equatorial Pacific warming delayed by aerosols and thermostat response to CO2 increase," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(8), pages 696-703, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01101-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01101-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Mingna Wu & Chao Li & Matthew Collins & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Zhongshi Zhang, 2024. "Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Wanqing Song & Xinyi Yang & Tao Zhang & Zechuan Huang & Haozhi Wang & Jie Sun & Yunhua Xu & Jia Ding & Wenbin Hu, 2024. "Optimizing potassium polysulfides for high performance potassium-sulfur batteries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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