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Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding

Author

Listed:
  • Philip R. Thompson

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Matthew J. Widlansky

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Benjamin D. Hamlington

    (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory)

  • Mark A. Merrifield

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • John J. Marra

    (NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information)

  • Gary T. Mitchum

    (University of South Florida)

  • William Sweet

    (NOAA/National Ocean Service)

Abstract

Coastal locations around the United States, particularly along the Atlantic coast, are experiencing recurrent flooding at high tide. Continued sea-level rise (SLR) will exacerbate the issue where present, and many more locations will begin to experience recurrent high-tide flooding (HTF) in the coming decades. Here we use established SLR scenarios and flooding thresholds to demonstrate how the combined effects of SLR and nodal cycle modulations of tidal amplitude lead to acute inflections in projections of future HTF. The mid-2030s, in particular, may see the onset of rapid increases in the frequency of HTF in multiple US coastal regions. We also show how annual cycles and sea-level anomalies lead to extreme seasons or months during which many days of HTF cluster together. Clustering can lead to critical frequencies of HTF occurring during monthly or seasonal periods one to two decades prior to being expected on an annual basis.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip R. Thompson & Matthew J. Widlansky & Benjamin D. Hamlington & Mark A. Merrifield & John J. Marra & Gary T. Mitchum & William Sweet, 2021. "Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(7), pages 584-590, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01077-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01077-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Sadaf Mahmoudi & Hamed Moftakhari & David F. Muñoz & William Sweet & Hamid Moradkhani, 2024. "Establishing flood thresholds for sea level rise impact communication," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Carmen E. Elrick-Barr & Timothy F. Smith, 2022. "Current Information Provision Rarely Helps Coastal Households Adapt to Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, March.

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