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Data-driven reconstruction reveals large-scale ocean circulation control on coastal sea level

Author

Listed:
  • Sönke Dangendorf

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Thomas Frederikse

    (California Institute of Technology)

  • Léon Chafik

    (Stockholm University)

  • John M. Klinck

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Tal Ezer

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Benjamin D. Hamlington

    (California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Understanding historical and projected coastal sea-level change is limited because the impact of large-scale ocean dynamics is not well constrained. Here, we use a global set of tide-gauge records over nine regions to analyse the relationship between coastal sea-level variability and open-ocean steric height, related to density fluctuations. Interannual-to-decadal sea-level variability follows open-ocean steric height variations along many coastlines. We extract their common modes of variability and reconstruct coastal sterodynamic sea level, which is due to ocean density and circulation changes, based on steric height observations. Our reconstruction, tested in Earth system models, explains up to 91% of coastal sea-level variability. Combined with barystatic components related to ocean mass change and vertical land motion, the reconstruction also permits closure of the coastal sea-level budget since 1960. We find ocean circulation has dominated coastal sea-level budgets over the past six decades, reinforcing its importance in near-term predictions and coastal planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Sönke Dangendorf & Thomas Frederikse & Léon Chafik & John M. Klinck & Tal Ezer & Benjamin D. Hamlington, 2021. "Data-driven reconstruction reveals large-scale ocean circulation control on coastal sea level," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(6), pages 514-520, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01046-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01046-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Sönke Dangendorf & Noah Hendricks & Qiang Sun & John Klinck & Tal Ezer & Thomas Frederikse & Francisco M. Calafat & Thomas Wahl & Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, 2023. "Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Carsten Bjerre Ludwigsen & Ole Baltazar Andersen & Ben Marzeion & Jan-Hendrik Malles & Hannes Müller Schmied & Petra Döll & Christopher Watson & Matt A. King, 2024. "Global and regional ocean mass budget closure since 2003," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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