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Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan P. Gillett

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Megan Kirchmeier-Young

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

  • Aurélien Ribes

    (CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS)

  • Hideo Shiogama

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Gabriele C. Hegerl

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Reto Knutti

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Guillaume Gastineau

    (Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace)

  • Jasmin G. John

    (NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Lijuan Li

    (Institute of Atmospheric Physics)

  • Larissa Nazarenko

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)

  • Nan Rosenbloom

    (NCAR)

  • Øyvind Seland

    (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

  • Tongwen Wu

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • Seiji Yukimoto

    (Meteorological Research Institute)

  • Tilo Ziehn

    (CSIRO)

Abstract

Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan P. Gillett & Megan Kirchmeier-Young & Aurélien Ribes & Hideo Shiogama & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Reto Knutti & Guillaume Gastineau & Jasmin G. John & Lijuan Li & Larissa Nazarenko & Nan Rosenbloom , 2021. "Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 207-212, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00965-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Buwen Dong & Rowan T. Sutton & Len Shaffrey & Ben Harvey, 2022. "Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Jaeyoung Song & Sungbo Shim & Ji-Sun Kim & Jae-Hee Lee & Young-Hwa Byun & Yeon-Hee Kim, 2021. "The Influence of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing on Water and Energy Balance and on Photosynthesis," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Xu Deng & Fei Teng & Minpeng Chen & Zhangliu Du & Bin Wang & Renqiang Li & Pan Wang, 2024. "Exploring negative emission potential of biochar to achieve carbon neutrality goal in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Wang, Jianda & Wang, Bo & Dong, Kangyin & Dong, Xiucheng, 2022. "How does the digital economy improve high-quality energy development? The case of China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    5. Yeon-Hee Kim & Seung-Ki Min & Nathan P. Gillett & Dirk Notz & Elizaveta Malinina, 2023. "Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    6. Teodor Kitczak & Heidi Jänicke & Marek Bury & Ryszard Malinowski, 2021. "The Usefulness of Mixtures with Festulolium braunii for the Regeneration of Grassland under Progressive Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Rémy Bonnet & Didier Swingedouw & Guillaume Gastineau & Olivier Boucher & Julie Deshayes & Frédéric Hourdin & Juliette Mignot & Jérôme Servonnat & Adriana Sima, 2021. "Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Yuting Zhou & Grace E. Klinger & Eric L. Hegg & Christopher M. Saffron & James E. Jackson, 2022. "Skeletal Ni electrode-catalyzed C-O cleavage of diaryl ethers entails direct elimination via benzyne intermediates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

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