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Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Author

Listed:
  • Chen Zhou

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

  • Mark D. Zelinka

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Andrew E. Dessler

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Minghuai Wang

    (Nanjing University
    Nanjing University)

Abstract

Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. After the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Zhou & Mark D. Zelinka & Andrew E. Dessler & Minghuai Wang, 2021. "Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(2), pages 132-136, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00955-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoqing Liu & Matthew Huber & Gavin L. Foster & Andrew Dessler & Yi Ge Zhang, 2022. "Persistent high latitude amplification of the Pacific Ocean over the past 10 million years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Rémy Bonnet & Didier Swingedouw & Guillaume Gastineau & Olivier Boucher & Julie Deshayes & Frédéric Hourdin & Juliette Mignot & Jérôme Servonnat & Adriana Sima, 2021. "Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.

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