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Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Eystein Jansen

    (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
    Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen

    (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
    University of Copenhagen
    Danish Meteorological Institute)

  • Trond Dokken

    (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Kerim H. Nisancioglu

    (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
    University of Oslo)

  • Bo M. Vinther

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Emilie Capron

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Chuncheng Guo

    (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Mari F. Jensen

    (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Peter L. Langen

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

  • Rasmus A. Pedersen

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

  • Shuting Yang

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

  • Mats Bentsen

    (Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Helle A. Kjær

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Henrik Sadatzki

    (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Evangeline Sessford

    (University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

  • Martin Stendel

    (Danish Meteorological Institute)

Abstract

Abrupt climate change is a striking feature of many climate records, particularly the warming events in Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and high-amplitude events were tightly coupled to rapid sea-ice retreat in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, and observational evidence shows they had global repercussions. In the present-day Arctic, sea-ice loss is also key to ongoing warming. This Perspective uses observations and climate models to place contemporary Arctic change into the context of past abrupt Greenland warmings. We find that warming rates similar to or higher than modern trends have only occurred during past abrupt glacial episodes. We argue that the Arctic is currently experiencing an abrupt climate change event, and that climate models underestimate this ongoing warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Eystein Jansen & Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen & Trond Dokken & Kerim H. Nisancioglu & Bo M. Vinther & Emilie Capron & Chuncheng Guo & Mari F. Jensen & Peter L. Langen & Rasmus A. Pedersen & Shuting Ya, 2020. "Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 714-721, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0860-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0860-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Felix J. Formanski & Marcel M. Pein & David D. Loschelder & John-Oliver Engler & Onno Husen & Johann M. Majer, 2022. "Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-20, November.
    2. A. Morley & E. Vega & M. Raitzsch & J. Bijma & U. Ninnemann & G. L. Foster & T. B. Chalk & J. Meilland & R. R. Cave & J. V. Büscher & M. Kucera, 2024. "A solution for constraining past marine Polar Amplification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Adel Necib & Jarboui Anis, 2023. "The Effect of Corporate Governance Mechanisms on Integrated Reporting (IR) Quality: The Case of FTSE100 Companies," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 13(2), pages 105-131.
    4. Zhihua Liu & John S. Kimball & Ashley P. Ballantyne & Nicholas C. Parazoo & Wen J. Wang & Ana Bastos & Nima Madani & Susan M. Natali & Jennifer D. Watts & Brendan M. Rogers & Philippe Ciais & Kailiang, 2022. "Respiratory loss during late-growing season determines the net carbon dioxide sink in northern permafrost regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

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