IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v10y2020i6d10.1038_s41558-020-0757-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coldest Canadian Arctic communities face greatest reductions in shorefast sea ice

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah W. Cooley

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Jonathan C. Ryan

    (Brown University)

  • Laurence C. Smith

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Chris Horvat

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

  • Brodie Pearson

    (Brown University
    Oregon State University)

  • Brigt Dale

    (Nordland Research Institute)

  • Amanda H. Lynch

    (Brown University
    Brown University)

Abstract

Shorefast sea ice comprises only about 12% of global sea-ice cover, yet it has outsized importance for Arctic societies and ecosystems. Relatively little is known, however, about the dominant drivers of its breakup or how it will respond to climate warming. Here, we use 19 years of near-daily satellite imagery to document the timing of shorefast ice breakup in 28 communities in northern Canada and western Greenland that rely on shorefast ice for transportation and traditional subsistence activities. Breakup timing is strongly correlated with springtime air temperature, but the sensitivity of the relationship varies substantially among communities. We combine these observations with future warming scenarios to estimate an annual reduction of 5–44 days in the length of the springtime shorefast ice season by 2100. Paradoxically, the coldest communities are projected to experience the largest reductions in springtime ice season duration. Our results emphasize the local nature of climate change and its varied impacts on Arctic communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah W. Cooley & Jonathan C. Ryan & Laurence C. Smith & Chris Horvat & Brodie Pearson & Brigt Dale & Amanda H. Lynch, 2020. "Coldest Canadian Arctic communities face greatest reductions in shorefast sea ice," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(6), pages 533-538, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0757-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0757-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0757-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-020-0757-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xueke Li & Amanda H. Lynch, 2023. "New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2023. "When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Göbel, Maximilian & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Zhang, Boyuan, 2024. "Reprint of: When will Arctic sea ice disappear? Projections of area, extent, thickness, and volume," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    4. Xueke Li & Scott R. Stephenson & Amanda H. Lynch & Michael A. Goldstein & David A. Bailey & Siri Veland, 2021. "Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-19, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1038_s41558-020-0757-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.