IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v10y2020i12d10.1038_s41558-020-00917-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming

Author

Listed:
  • A. K. Ettinger

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University)

  • C. J. Chamberlain

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University)

  • I. Morales-Castilla

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    University of Alcalá)

  • D. M. Buonaiuto

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University)

  • D. F. B. Flynn

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    US Department of Transport, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center)

  • T. Savas

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • J. A. Samaha

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    University of British Columbia)

  • E. M. Wolkovich

    (Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University
    Harvard University
    University of British Columbia)

Abstract

Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses to warming in recent years. Here we use a global meta-analysis of all published experiments to test the relative effects of these cues. Almost all species show strong responses to all three cues, with chilling being the strongest and photoperiod the weakest. Forecasts from our findings for Central Europe suggest that spring phenology will continue to advance, as stalling effects of chilling generally appear above 4 °C warming in this region. Our results unify both sides of the debate over phenological cues: while all species may respond to all cues strongly in experimental conditions, in current environmental conditions the dominant signal of climate change is from increased forcing.

Suggested Citation

  • A. K. Ettinger & C. J. Chamberlain & I. Morales-Castilla & D. M. Buonaiuto & D. F. B. Flynn & T. Savas & J. A. Samaha & E. M. Wolkovich, 2020. "Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(12), pages 1137-1142, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00917-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00917-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00917-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41558-020-00917-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiuping Yi & Ling Zou & Zigeng Niu & Daoyang Jiang & Qian Cao, 2022. "Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Benjamin R. Lee & Tara K. Miller & Christoph Rosche & Yong Yang & J. Mason Heberling & Sara E. Kuebbing & Richard B. Primack, 2022. "Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Haidong Zhao & Lina Zhang & M. B. Kirkham & Stephen M. Welch & John W. Nielsen-Gammon & Guihua Bai & Jiebo Luo & Daniel A. Andresen & Charles W. Rice & Nenghan Wan & Romulo P. Lollato & Dianfeng Zheng, 2022. "U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:10:y:2020:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00917-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.