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Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720)

  • Thomas Cassidy

    (Department of Mathematics, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA 17837)

  • Kenneth W. Wachter

    (Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720)

Abstract

Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua R. Goldstein & Thomas Cassidy & Kenneth W. Wachter, 2021. "Vaccinating the oldest against COVID-19 saves both the most lives and most years of life," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(11), pages 2026322118-, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:118:y:2021:p:e2026322118
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Health > Allocation and rationing

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    Cited by:

    1. Lin Chen & Fengli Xu & Zhenyu Han & Kun Tang & Pan Hui & James Evans & Yong Li, 2022. "Strategic COVID-19 vaccine distribution can simultaneously elevate social utility and equity," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1503-1514, November.
    2. Hazhir Rahmandad, 2022. "Behavioral responses to risk promote vaccinating high‐contact individuals first," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 38(3), pages 246-263, July.
    3. Marta Serra-Garcia & Nora Szech, 2023. "Incentives and Defaults Can Increase COVID-19 Vaccine Intentions and Test Demand," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 1037-1049, February.
    4. Claudia Hazard-Valdés & Elizabeth Montero, 2023. "A Heuristic Approach for Determining Efficient Vaccination Plans under a SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-32, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; years of life lost;

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