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Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use

Author

Listed:
  • Terry L. Schell

    (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA 90401)

  • Matthew Cefalu

    (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA 90401)

  • Beth Ann Griffin

    (RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA 22202)

  • Rosanna Smart

    (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA 90401)

  • Andrew R. Morral

    (RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA 22202)

Abstract

Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry L. Schell & Matthew Cefalu & Beth Ann Griffin & Rosanna Smart & Andrew R. Morral, 2020. "Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(26), pages 14906-14910, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nas:journl:v:117:y:2020:p:14906-14910
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamlin, Daniel, 2021. "Are gun ownership rates and regulations associated with firearm incidents in American schools? A forty-year analysis (1980–2019)," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Pak, Tae-Young, 2022. "The effects of mass shootings on gun sales: Motivations, mechanisms, policies and regulations," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1148-1164.
    3. Sarah E. Dehry & Patrick M. Krueger, 2023. "Excess Deaths in the United States Compared to 18 Other High-Income Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-14, April.

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