IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mup/actaun/actaun_2016064061869.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Gdp in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan

Author

Listed:
  • Khatai Aliyev

    (Institute for Social Sciences and Humanities, Qafqaz University, Khirdalan, Azerbaijan; Institute of Control Systems, Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, Baku, Azerbaijan)

  • Bruce Dehning

    (Argyros School of Business and Economics, Chapman University, Orange, California, United States)

  • Orkhan Nadirov

    (Faculty of Management and Economics, Tomas Bata University in Zlin, Zlin, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of public expenditures and tax revenues on non-oil economic growth in Azerbaijan for the period of 2000Q1-2015Q2 by employing OLS, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR and Granger Causality techniques. Different cointegration methods result in consistent results. In this study, there is strong evidence of significant long-run positive contributions from public expenditures to non-oil sector output. Results also show that tax revenues significantly slow down non-oil economic growth in the long run. Granger Causality analysis finds the existence of a bidirectional short-run association between non-oil GDP and public expenditures, while tax revenues Granger Cause both variables. The research findings should be useful for Azerbaijan fiscal policy makers to consider now and in the future. Current plans in Azerbaijan for both public expenditure cuts and tax revenue increases are likely to cause contraction in the Azerbaijan's non-oil sector GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Khatai Aliyev & Bruce Dehning & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "Modelling the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Gdp in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 1869-1878.
    • Handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064061869
    DOI: 10.11118/actaun201664061869
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201664061869.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://acta.mendelu.cz/doi/10.11118/actaun201664061869.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11118/actaun201664061869?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
    6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    9. Andersen, Jørgen Juel & Aslaksen, Silje, 2008. "Constitutions and the resource curse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 227-246, October.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    11. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
    12. Hasanov, Fakhri & Mammadov, Fuad, 2010. "The Role of the Fiscal Policy in the Development of the Non-Resource," MPRA Paper 65571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric & De Soysa, Indra, 2007. "Corruption, the resource curse and genuine saving," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 33-53, February.
    14. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    16. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
    17. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    18. Joharji Ghazi A. & Starr Martha A, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Growth in Saudi Arabia," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 24-45, February.
    19. Frimpong, Joseph Magnus & Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu, 2006. "Bivariate causality analysis between FDI inflows and economic growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2006.
    20. Hasanov Fakhri, 2011. "Dutch Disease and Azerbaijan Economy," EERC Working Paper Series 11/03e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    21. Henrekson, Magnus, 1993. "Wagner's Law--A Spurious Relationship?," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 48(3), pages 406-415.
    22. Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, 2011. "How Strong are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC?," IMF Working Papers 2011/061, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    24. Sturm, Michael & Gurtner, François & González Alegre, Juan, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries: a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    25. António Afonso & Ludger Schuknecht & Vito Tanzi, 2005. "Public sector efficiency: An international comparison," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 321-347, June.
    26. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    27. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2006. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: From Dependence to Diversification," Springer Books, in: Harry G. Broadman & Tiiu Paas & Paul J.J. Welfens (ed.), Economic Liberalization and Integration Policy, pages 201-231, Springer.
    28. Arusha Cooray, 2009. "Government Expenditure, Governance and Economic Growth," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 51(3), pages 401-418, September.
    29. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    30. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    31. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nigar Huseynli, 2022. "Impact of Revenues from Oil and Non-Oil Sectors on the Economic Growth of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 31-35, September.
    2. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U-Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    3. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    4. Fakhri Hasanov & Fuad Mammadov & Nayef Al-Musehel, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Non-Oil Economic Growth," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Vasilii Erokhin & Tianming Gao, 2020. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-28, August.
    6. Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Sang-Uk Jung, 2020. "The Strategy of South Korea in the Global Oil Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-8, May.
    7. Gao Tianming & Vasilii Erokhin & Aleksandr Arskiy & Mikail Khudzhatov, 2021. "Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected Maritime Connectivity? An Estimation for China and the Polar Silk Road Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-39, March.
    8. Akif Musayev & Khatai Aliyev, 2017. "Modelling Oil-Sector Dependency of Tax Revenues in a Resource Rich Country: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 1023-1029.
    9. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "Analysis of Inflation Trends in Urban and Rural Parts of Azerbaijan: Main Drivers and Links to Oil Revenue," EconStor Preprints 226217, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Qadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2019. "Oil Factor in Economic Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-40, April.
    11. Jeyhun A. Abbasov & Khatai Aliyev, 2018. "Testing Wagner's Law and Keynesian Hypothesis in Selected Post-Soviet Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(5), pages 1227-1237.
    12. Sugra Ingilab Humbatova & Natig Gadim-Ogli Hajiyev, 2020. "The Impact of Oil Factor on the Car Import in Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 450-462.
    13. Sugra Humbatova, 2023. "The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 189-212, January.
    14. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khatai Aliyev & Orkhan Nadirov, 2016. "How Fiscal Policy Affects Non-Oil Economic Performance in Azerbaijan?," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 2(3), pages 11-29, September.
    2. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Sabuhi Yusifov & Khatai Aliyev & Samra Talishinskaya, 2019. "The role of social and physical infrastructure spending in tradable and non-tradable growth," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    3. Khatai Aliyev & Ceyhun Mikayilov, 2016. "Does the Budget Expenditure Composition Matter for Long-Run Economic Growth in a Resource Rich Country? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 2(2), pages 147-168, June.
    4. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    6. Wang, Yi-Hsien & Lee, Jun-De, 2012. "Estimating the import demand function for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2591-2596.
    7. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Shannak, Sa'd, 2020. "Electricity incentives for agriculture in Saudi Arabia. Is that relevant to remove them?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    8. Khatai Aliyev & Altay Ismayilov & Ilkin Gasimov, 2019. "Modelling Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues to Oil Price Changes: is There U-Shaped Association? Evidence from Azerbaijan," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 799-810.
    9. Samih Antoine Azar & Angelic Salha, 2017. "The Bias in the Long Run Relation between the Prices of BRENT and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oils," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 44-54.
    10. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    11. Hasanov, Fakhri & Huseynov, Fariz, 2013. "Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 597-610.
    12. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    14. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115.
    15. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    16. Fakhri Hasanov & Jeyhun Mikayilov & Cihan Bulut & Elchin Suleymanov & Fuzuli Aliyev, 2017. "The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Zakaria, Muhammad & Hurr, Maryam, 2017. "Carbon emission, energy consumption, trade openness and financial development in Pakistan: A revisit," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 185-192.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0171 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    20. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra & Asit Mohanty, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    21. Eduardo López E. & Víctor Riquelme P., 2010. "Auge, Colapso y Recuperación de los Precios de Materias Primas entre 2002 y 2010: ¿Qué Hay Detrás?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(2), pages 129-145, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mup:actaun:actaun_2016064061869. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mendelu.cz/en/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.