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Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009

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  • Alessandro Piergallini
  • Michele Postigliola

Abstract

We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in post-unification Italy, from 1861to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non-stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makershave reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems.

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  • Alessandro Piergallini & Michele Postigliola, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 417-440.
    • Handle: RePEc:mul:jqat1f:doi:10.1427/38532:y:2012:i:3:p:417-440
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    3. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
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    5. Guido Baldi & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "The European debt crisis and fiscal reaction functions in Europe 2000–2012," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2013-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 24 Jul 2013.
    6. Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2020. "Evaluating the sustainability of Italian public finances," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    8. Cosimo Magazzino & Mihai Mutascu, 2019. "A wavelet analysis of Italian fiscal sustainability," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Public Debt; Fiscal Sustainability.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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