IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/bmsmti/v14y2023i2p39-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Overconfidence in Managerial Decision-Making among Brazilian Accountants and Managers: An Experimental Study

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Fonseca Costa
  • Bruno César de Melo Moreira
  • Washington Santos Silva
  • Lélis Pedro de Andrade

Abstract

The aim of this work is to analyze, by means of an experiment, if the type (positive or negative) and the level (simple or complex) of financial information influence of overconfidence of entrepreneurs and accountants in a managerial decision-making process. The design consists of a 2 x 2 factorial experiment, with four treatments, with the type and level of accounting information as experimental factors. The research was applied to a sample of 68 managers, 86 accountants, and 118 people with different activities (control group). The results showed that the majority of participants present the Overconfidence bias, in the first test, without differentiation of information. They also presented significant evidence that overconfidence can be influenced by the type of information, but not by its level. Moreover, the analysis suggested that the profile of the participants influences the confidence in the projections conducted. The research has shown that the type of financial information influences the overconfidence of entrepreneurs and accountants.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Fonseca Costa & Bruno César de Melo Moreira & Washington Santos Silva & Lélis Pedro de Andrade, 2023. "Overconfidence in Managerial Decision-Making among Brazilian Accountants and Managers: An Experimental Study," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 14(2), pages 39-70, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:bmsmti:v:14:y:2023:i:2:p:39-70
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bms/article/download/21116/16385
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bms/article/view/21116
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anwer S. Ahmed & Scott Duellman, 2013. "Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    4. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    5. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
    6. Robert Libby & Kristina Rennekamp, 2012. "Self‐Serving Attribution Bias, Overconfidence, and the Issuance of Management Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 197-231, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Cláudia Cardoso Soares & Bruno César Melo Moreira & Adriano Olímpio Tonelli, 2025. "Construction and validation of an overconfidence scale in investment decisions," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Helen X. H. Bao & Steven Haotong Li, 2016. "Overconfidence And Real Estate Research: A Survey Of The Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Francisval Carvalho & Bruno César Moreira & José Willer Prado, 2017. "Bibliometric analysis on the association between behavioral finance and decision making with cognitive biases such as overconfidence, anchoring effect and confirmation bias," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(3), pages 1775-1799, June.
    3. Han, Jun, 2013. "A literature synthesis of experimental studies on management earnings guidance," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 49-70.
    4. Baginski, Stephen P. & Demers, Elizabeth & Kausar, Asad & Yu, Yingri Julia, 2018. "Linguistic tone and the small trader," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 68, pages 21-37.
    5. Johannes Brunzel, 2021. "Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 585-623, July.
    6. Bukalska Elżbieta, 2019. "Testing trade-off theory and pecking order theory under managerial overconfidence," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(2), pages 99-117, June.
    7. Helen Bao & Haotong Li, 2017. "CEO Overconfidence in Real Estate Markets: A Curse or A Blessing?," ERES eres2017_157, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    8. Sanaz Aghazadeh & Lili Sun & Qian Wang & Rong Yang, 2018. "Investors’ perception of CEO overconfidence: evidence from the cost of equity capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1129-1150, November.
    9. Ferri, Fabrizio & Oesch, David, 2013. "Management Influence on Investors: Evidence from Shareholder Votes on the Frequency of Say on Pay," Working Papers on Finance 1329, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    10. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    11. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2007. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 6017, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2007.
    12. Weifeng Xu & Qingsong Ruan & Chang Liu, 2019. "Can the Famous University Experience of Top Managers Improve Corporate Performance? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Juwon Jang & Eunju Lee, 2024. "CEO confidence matters: the real effects of short sale constraints revisited," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 603-636, February.
    14. Ross Gruetzemacher & Kang Bok Lee & David Paradice, 2024. "Calibration training for improving probabilistic judgments using an interactive app," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), June.
    15. Diego García & Francesco Sangiorgi & Branko Urošević, 2007. "Overconfidence and Market Efficiency with Heterogeneous Agents," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 30(2), pages 313-336, February.
    16. Singh, Bharati, 2021. "A Bibliometric Analysis of Behavioral Finance and Behavioral Accounting," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(2), pages 198-230, November.
    17. Gustavo Iamin, 2024. "Are crypto-investors overconfident? The role of risk propensity and demographics. Evidence from Brazil and Portugal," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 147-173, November.
    18. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    19. Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
    20. De Baets, Shari & Harvey, Nigel, 2018. "Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 163-180.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:bmsmti:v:14:y:2023:i:2:p:39-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Technical Support Office to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/bms .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.