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Overconfidence in Managerial Decision-Making among Brazilian Accountants and Managers: An Experimental Study

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Listed:
  • Daniel Fonseca Costa
  • Bruno César de Melo Moreira
  • Washington Santos Silva
  • Lélis Pedro de Andrade

Abstract

The aim of this work is to analyze, by means of an experiment, if the type (positive or negative) and the level (simple or complex) of financial information influence of overconfidence of entrepreneurs and accountants in a managerial decision-making process. The design consists of a 2 x 2 factorial experiment, with four treatments, with the type and level of accounting information as experimental factors. The research was applied to a sample of 68 managers, 86 accountants, and 118 people with different activities (control group). The results showed that the majority of participants present the Overconfidence bias, in the first test, without differentiation of information. They also presented significant evidence that overconfidence can be influenced by the type of information, but not by its level. Moreover, the analysis suggested that the profile of the participants influences the confidence in the projections conducted. The research has shown that the type of financial information influences the overconfidence of entrepreneurs and accountants.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Fonseca Costa & Bruno César de Melo Moreira & Washington Santos Silva & Lélis Pedro de Andrade, 2023. "Overconfidence in Managerial Decision-Making among Brazilian Accountants and Managers: An Experimental Study," Business Management and Strategy, Macrothink Institute, vol. 14(2), pages 39-70, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:bmsmti:v:14:y:2023:i:2:p:39-70
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anwer S. Ahmed & Scott Duellman, 2013. "Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    3. Hilary, Gilles & Hsu, Charles, 2011. "Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 300-313, April.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    6. Robert Libby & Kristina Rennekamp, 2012. "Self‐Serving Attribution Bias, Overconfidence, and the Issuance of Management Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 197-231, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Fonseca Costa & Cláudia Cardoso Soares & Bruno César Melo Moreira & Adriano Olímpio Tonelli, 2025. "Construction and validation of an overconfidence scale in investment decisions," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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