Estimation of Inheritance Taxation Using Micro Data from the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure

In this paper, we estimated the inheritance taxation rate in 2010 and 2015 using raw data from the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. From the National Tax Agency Annual Statistics Report, which is a source of direct tax information, only data concerning the results of overall taxation on households subject to the inheritance tax is available, so it is difficult to conduct a detailed analysis based on this report. However, we succeeded in conducting estimation and analysis by developing a simulation model using an abundance of micro data, including data concerning households other than those subject to the inheritance tax. Our model is intended to contribute to policymaking by estimating the inheritance taxation rates through the use of the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure and the Vital Statistics and analyzing the impact of tax system revisions. The estimated rates, including on a declared basis, are close to the actual taxation rates in each of 2010 and 2015, and we also succeeded in more accurately estimating the impact of the 2013 tax system revision than the government’s official estimates. Our analysis makes it clear that the impact of proportional deduction determined by the number of legal heirs on the taxation rate has grown since the revision. It also suggests that although the reduction of the standard deduction amount has had a significant impact on the taxation rate, the revision of the real estate assessment system may have had a greater impact on tax revenue. As accumulated capital is attracting interest as a factor behind economic inequality, it is very meaningful to analyze the inheritance tax system, which is a representative asset taxation system. This paper provides some implications for the analysis of the inheritance tax system in Japan.