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20 years of EU Membership: What Explains the Accession Bonus?

Author

Listed:
  • Maxim Chupilkin

    (University of Oxford, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

  • Zsoka Koczan

    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

  • Alexander Plekhanov

    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

Abstract

2024 marked the 20th anniversary of the EU accession of ten economies. Their experience was characterised by rapid growth in per capita incomes. Of the 23 percentage points of average convergence observed between the EU-10 and Germany between 2003 and 2023, 6 percentage points are shared with other emerging markets with similar characteristics, while the remaining 17 percentage points can be thought of as an 'EU accession bonus', facilitated by rapid growth in exports relative to GDP as they became deeply integrated into supply chains. Looking at the impact of EU accession in earlier waves, 20 years after joining, we also estimate a large 'EU accession bonus' for Spain and Portugal (which joined in 1986). Austria, Finland and Sweden (which joined in 1995) outperformed their synthetic controls only in the longer term and when comparators exclude Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland - non-EU economies with access to the internal market.

Suggested Citation

  • Maxim Chupilkin & Zsoka Koczan & Alexander Plekhanov, 2025. "20 years of EU Membership: What Explains the Accession Bonus?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 24(1), pages 52-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:finrev:v:24:y:2025:i:1:p:52-73
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Union; accession bonus; income convergence; trade integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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