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MPM – The Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s monetary policy model

Author

Listed:
  • Ágnes Horváth

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Csaba Köber

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Katalin Szilágyi

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB’s Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate and the exchange rate. Given the forward-looking nature of this model, expectations by economic agents play a key role in monetary transmission; therefore, instead of one-off interest rate measures, the achievement of inflation target is guaranteed by the entire interest rate path over the forecast horizon. In the following, we discuss the underlying structure and logic behind the MPM, as well as the functioning of key behavioural equations, while also examining how the channels of monetary transmission appear in the model. We also present our motivations regarding the model switch and review how developing and operating this new tool have changed our current processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ágnes Horváth & Csaba Köber & Katalin Szilágyi, 2011. "MPM – The Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s monetary policy model," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 6(2), pages 18-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:6:y:2011:i:2:p:18-24
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/horvath-kober-szilagyi-eng.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kozmenko, Serhiy & Savchenko, Taras, 2013. "Development of an explicit rule of monetary policy for the economy of Ukraine," MPRA Paper 50793, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; monetary policy; inflation targeting; macroeconomic model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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