IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mnb/bullet/v4y2009i3p14-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk developments on the retail mortgage loan market

Author

Listed:
  • Dániel Holló

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

In this study, using three commercial banks’ retail mortgage loan portfolios (consisting of approximately 200,000 clients with housing and home equity loans), we analyse the risk characteristics of the portfolio, identify customer-specific and product-specific factors, and market and macroeconomic factors that influence portfolio quality, and finally calculate the loan loss on the retail mortgage portfolio of the banking sector in an extreme macro-risk scenario (10 per cent decline in GDP; exchange rate of EUR/HUF 340). Our findings suggest that the loans’ denomination structure, the initial loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and the debtor’s level of education can be considered as the main customer-specific and product-specific drivers of default risk, while the unemployment rate, domestic and foreign interest rates as well as the exchange rate constitute the major macro-risk factors impacting defaults. Based on our calculations, in the macro-risk scenario the total loss on the retail mortgage loan portfolio of the banking sector would amount to HUF 372 billion, which is approximately 6 per cent of the end-2008 mortgage loan portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Dániel Holló, 2009. "Risk developments on the retail mortgage loan market," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 4(3), pages 14-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:4:y:2009:i:3:p:14-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/hollo-2009-okt-en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Wei, 2015. "R&D investment and distress risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 94-114.
    2. Palmroos, Peter, 2009. "Effects of unobserved defaults on correlation between probability of default and loss given on mortgage loans," Research Discussion Papers 3/2009, Bank of Finland.
    3. Mankart, Jochen, 2014. "The (Un-) importance of Chapter 7 wealth exemption levels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-16.
    4. Burcu Duygan-Bump & Charles Grant, 2008. "Household debt repayment behaviour: what role do institutions play?," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    6. Carlos Madeira, 2019. "Adverse selection, loan access and default in the Chilean consumer debt market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 838, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Scholnick, Barry & Massoud, Nadia & Saunders, Anthony & Carbo-Valverde, Santiago & Rodríguez-Fernández, Francisco, 2008. "The economics of credit cards, debit cards and ATMs: A survey and some new evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1468-1483, August.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon, 2014. "Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," NBER Working Papers 19850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    10. Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5069-5098, December.
    11. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Lojschova, Adriana & Ward-Warmedinger, Melanie E., 2009. "Mortgage Indebtedness and Household Financial Distress," IZA Discussion Papers 4631, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Choudhary, M. Ali & Jain, Anil, 2022. "Finance and inequality: The distributional impacts of bank credit rationing," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2004. "Incorporating Systemic Influences Into Risk Measurements: A Survey of the Literature," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 161-191, October.
    14. Samuel Dodini & Donald R. Haurin & Stephanie Moulton & Maximilian D. Schmeiser, 2015. "How House Price Dynamics and Credit Constraints affect the Equity Extraction of Senior Homeowners," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-70, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Nathan Blascak & Julia S. Cheney & Robert M. Hunt & Vyacheslav Mikhed & Dubravka Ritter & Michael Vogan, 2021. "Financial Consequences of Severe Identity Theft in the U.S," Working Papers 21-41, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Hyungsuk Byun & Barry Scholnick, 2017. "Spatial Commitment Devices and Addictive Goods: Evidence from the Removal of Slot Machines from Bars," Working Papers 17-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    17. Bhashkar Mazumder & Sarah Miller, 2014. "The Effects of the Massachusetts Health Reform on Financial Distress," Working Paper Series WP-2014-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    18. Agarwal, Sumit & Ambrose, Brent W. & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin, 2006. "An empirical analysis of home equity loan and line performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 444-469, October.
    19. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Lawrence Mielnicki, 2008. "Do Forbearance Plans Help Mitigate Credit Card Losses?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 191-201, June.
    20. Jérôme Sgard, 2010. "Les Comptes Généraux de la Justice : une description statistique des institutions judiciaires de la France au XIX° siècle," Working Papers hal-01064422, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; stress test.;

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:4:y:2009:i:3:p:14-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maja Bajcsy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mnbgvhu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.