Export surpluses and complementarities of countries: a note on realism of balance of payment constrained growth models

The present note develops an argument in which the connection between exports and growth should underpin the demand side role of exports. The role of exports supports the external economies and supply dynamics in the Young-Kaldor cumulative causation growth. Perhaps most important, the export-led growth in a developed country and its need of proper, dynamic supply response induces imports that, in turn, can support effective export-led growth of its trading partners. This perspective brings in the crucial role of a broad range of domestic Keynesian policies, supporting the demand side role of investment and exports that ensures the proper interactions of domestic growth and the broader participation in the export-led growth. The resultant macro increasing returns at the international stage—export-led advanced growth in one country associated with such growth in other participating countries—provides the Keynesian understanding of the short run adjustment underlying interaction of exports, imports and domestic growth that permits the long run transition toward the balance of payment constrained growth. The Keynesian insight into the role of demand also underpins how additional participation in export-led growth brings forth further enhanced, endogenous export-led growth propensities for the trading partners that propagate in a cumulative way.