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A modified Taylor rule for the Brazilian economy: convention and conservatism in eleven years of inflation targeting (2000-2010)

Author

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  • André de Melo Modenesi
  • Norberto Martins
  • Rui Modenesi

Abstract

With the purpose of evaluating Brazilian Central Bank's (BCB) conduct of monetary policy after the adoption of inflation targeting (IT), we estimate a modified version of the Taylor rule for the Brazilian economy in the period 2000-2010. The term modified refers to an important innovation with regard to the reviewed literature: the inclusion of a proxy for the international interest rate in the original equation. This study reinforces and expands results achieved by Modenesi (2011) and also provides a new evidence that the BCB reacts to foreign interest rates when setting its basic rate (Selic). The BCB has reduced autonomy: Selic is endogenous not only to domestic conditions (inflation and output gaps) but also to foreign interest rates (measured by the LIBOR). The evidence provided might support the argument that BCB policy is ruled by a proconservative convention substantiated in the adoption of a Taylor rule containing three distinctive features: (1) a high degree of interest rate smoothness; (2) a high pure domestic equilibrium interest rate; and (3) high interest rate differential. Items (2) and (3) largely explain the overvaluation of the real, a key element of price stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • André de Melo Modenesi & Norberto Martins & Rui Modenesi, 2013. "A modified Taylor rule for the Brazilian economy: convention and conservatism in eleven years of inflation targeting (2000-2010)," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 463-482.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:35:y:2013:i:3:p:463-482
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477350308
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    Cited by:

    1. André de Melo Modenesi & Rui Lyrio Modenesi & José Luis Oreiro & Norberto Montani Martins, 2013. "Convention, interest rates and monetary policy: a post-Keynesian–French-conventions-school approach," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 76-92.
    2. Bogdan CAPRARU & Norel Ionut MOISE & Andrei RADULESCU, 2015. "The Monetary Policy Of The National Bank Of Romania In The Inflation Targeting Era. A Taylor Rule Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 16, pages 91-102, December.
    3. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the U.S and Brazil," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Modenesi, Rui Lyrio & Modenesi, André de Melo & Martins, Norberto Montani & Fontaine, Patrick, 2015. "Restructuring the Economic Policy Framework in Brazil: Genuine or Gattopardo change?," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 17.
    5. Rui Lyrio Modenesi & André De Melo Modenesi, 2016. "Development Conventions: Theory And The Brazilian Case After The Mid-20th Century," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 082, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Chertman, Fernando & Hutchison, Michael & Zink, David, 2020. "Facing the Quadrilemma: Taylor rules, intervention policy and capital controls in large emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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