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Value and probability

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  • MARK G. HAYES

Abstract

This paper expresses the Post Keynesian critique of "fundamental value" and the efficient markets hypothesis using the symbols of Keynes's Treatise on Probability. A distinction is drawn between ex ante and ex post fundamental value, which coincide in the case of fixed annuities but not for financial assets in general, except in an ergodic system. Keynes's symbols allow expression of the general form of the probability relation represented by ex ante fundamental value, highlighting its dependence on unreliable propositions about future events, and also of the conventional basis of valuation, which it is only rational to adopt in such circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark G. Hayes, 2006. "Value and probability," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 527-538.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:28:y:2006:i:3:p:527-538
    DOI: 10.2753/PKE0160-3477280308
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Hayes, 2006. "The Economics of Keynes: A New Guide to The General Theory," Books, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES), number nggt.
    2. Constantinos Repapis, 2020. "Book review: Mark G Hayes, John Maynard Keynes: The Art of Choosing the Right Model," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 31(3), pages 470-476, September.
    3. Sophie van Huellen, 2020. "Approaches To Price Formation In Financialized Commodity Markets," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 219-237, February.

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