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Lives of the Firehorse Cohort: What the Statistics Show

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  • Hideo Akabayashi

Abstract

The superstition that says women born in the year of the firehorse (Hinoeuma) are emotional and difficult to control clearly caused the fertility rate to drop sharply in Japan in 1906 and 1966. In this article, we focus on the lives of those born in the firehorse generation. We use government statistics to determine their family backgrounds and how they lived their adult lives. We review demographic studies regarding the reasons for fertility declines in the firehorse years, propose some theoretical hypotheses on how the superstition might have affected the later lives of the firehorse children, and review some related studies. Using government statistics, including the Census, Vital Statistics, and the Basic Survey of Schools, we investigate the family background, education, labor status, and marriage rates of the 1966 cohort, and the marriage rates, labor status, and health of the 1906 cohort. We find, among other things, that the quality of the education received by the 1966 cohort appears to be higher than that of other cohorts, their marriage rates for both men and women are lower, and the labor participation rate of the 1906 cohort is higher than that of other cohorts.

Suggested Citation

  • Hideo Akabayashi, 2008. "Lives of the Firehorse Cohort: What the Statistics Show," Japanese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 34-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:jpneco:v:35:y:2008:i:3:p:34-54
    DOI: 10.2753/JES1097-203X350302
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    1. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:6:p:590-592 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Shum, Matthew & Sun, Wei & Ye, Guangliang, 2014. "Superstition and “lucky” apartments: Evidence from transaction-level data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 109-117.
    3. repec:cup:judgdm:v:13:y:2018:i:5:p:467-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Elena B. Pokryshevskaya & Evgeny A. Antipov, 2015. "A study of numerological superstitions in the apartments market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 83-88.
    5. Dmitry Burakov, 2018. "Do discounts mitigate numerological superstitions? Evidence from the Russian real estate market," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 13(5), pages 467-470, September.
    6. Cheng Huang & Xiaojing Ma & Shiying Zhang & Qingguo Zhao, 2020. "Numerological preferences, timing of births and the long-term effect on schooling," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 531-554, April.
    7. Huang, Cheng & Zhang, Shiying & Zhao, Qingguo & Lin, Yan, 2021. "Dragon year superstition, birth timing, and neonatal health outcomes," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Evgeny A. Antipov & Elena B. Pokryshevskaya, 2015. "Are buyers of apartments superstitious? Evidence from the Russian real estate market," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(6), pages 590-592, November.

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