Impact of Anti-Dumping on Chinese Exports to Countries in ASEAN Plus 6

Concerns about China’s excessive production capacity prompt a closer examination of Anti-dumping Duties (ADs) as a tool for managing trade imbalances. Within the ASEAN region, ASEAN plus 6 countries, especially India, are emerging as alternatives to China in global value chains. These countries import a broad range of products from China, including intermediate goods, making it vital to analyze the effects of ADs on these imports. Using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, which effectively handles zero trade flows, heteroskedasticity, and endogeneity, this study explores the use of ADs beyond traditional major economies like the US and EU, focusing on their adoption by less economically developed countries. The findings show that ADs significantly curtail Chinese exports, potentially hindering stronger cooperation within ASEAN plus 6 and slowing regional trade dynamics. This research serves as a critical benchmark for assessing China’s strategic role in global economic leadership, viewed with reservations by several countries, including the US. It emphasizes the need to further explore China’s interaction with ASEAN plus 6 partner countries, particularly concerning trade remedy such as ADs and their impact on regional integration.