IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v60y2024i14p3254-3270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitical Risk and Cryptocurrency Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Fang
  • Qirui Tang
  • Yanru Wang

Abstract

This paper uses a state-dependent local projection model to empirically test the dynamic risk performance of cryptocurrency assets under geopolitical risk events, and to examine whether they have safe-haven properties in the face of major global external shocks. We demonstrate that the volatility of the cryptocurrency market exhibits a non-linear relationship with geopolitical risk. They are uncorrelated in normal times, but the risk of cryptocurrency market rises significantly under extreme geopolitical risk events. The cumulative impulse response pattern of volatility in the cryptocurrency market is similar to that of volatility in speculative assets such as stocks and bonds, but negatively correlated with that of volatility in safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar. Our findings suggest that the volatility of cryptocurrencies should not be underestimated when investors consider hedging strategies under external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Fang & Qirui Tang & Yanru Wang, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Cryptocurrency Market Volatility," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(14), pages 3254-3270, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:60:y:2024:i:14:p:3254-3270
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2024.2343948
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2024.2343948
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2024.2343948?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Cepni, Oguzhan & Darendeli, S. Pinar Ceyhan, 2021. "Do investor sentiments drive cryptocurrency prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    2. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Triki, Mohamed Bilel & Ben Maatoug, Abderrazek, 2021. "The GOLD market as a safe haven against the stock market uncertainty: Evidence from geopolitical risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 145-149.
    5. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Tayachi, Tahar, 2021. "Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-85.
    6. Uzonwanne, Godfrey, 2021. "Volatility and return spillovers between stock markets and cryptocurrencies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 30-36.
    7. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    8. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    9. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 122-127.
    10. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Volatility Spillovers Across Countries and Asset Classes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 333-354, February.
    12. Ciner, Cetin & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Lucey, Brian M., 2013. "Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 202-211.
    13. Baur, Dirk G. & Hoang, Lai T. & Hossain, Md Zakir, 2022. "Is Bitcoin a hedge? How extreme volatility can destroy the hedge property," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    15. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross & Felix Kapfhammer, 2023. "The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market," Working Papers No 08/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    17. Fackler, James S. & Parker, Randall E., 1994. "Accounting for the great depression: A historical decomposition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 193-220.
    18. Jin, Changlun & Tian, Xiujuan, 2024. "Enhanced safe-haven status of Bitcoin: Evidence from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    20. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Cryptocurrency spectrum and 2020 pandemic: Contagion analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 29-38.
    21. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    22. Ahmad Monir Abdullah, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on the Relationship Between the US Islamic Stock Index, Bitcoin, and Commodities," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-6.
    23. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    24. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1012-1035, December.
    25. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    26. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Gozgor, Giray & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    27. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Geopolitical risk and volatility spillovers in oil and stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 358-366.
    28. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    29. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Shu-Jiao, 2021. "Risk spillover between Bitcoin and conventional financial markets: An expectile-based approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    30. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    31. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    32. Ma, Xiaomeng & Yang, Ruixian & Zou, Dong & Liu, Rui, 2020. "Measuring extreme risk of sustainable financial system using GJR-GARCH model trading data-based," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 526-537.
    33. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia-Ukraine tensions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    34. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    35. Yi Fang & Yanru Wang & Yingyu Zhao, 2022. "Risk Spillover of Global Treasury Bond Markets in the Time of COVID-19 Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(15), pages 4309-4320, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    2. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark & Kamal, Khaled Bin, 2022. "Do gold, oil, equities, and currencies hedge economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks during covid crisis?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. rao, amar & Dagar, Vishal & dagher, leila & Shobande, Olatunji, 2024. "Uncertainty and Risk in Cryptocurrency Markets: Evidence of Time-frequency Connectedness," MPRA Paper 120582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock prices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Dimitrios Koutmos & Timothy King & Constantin Zopounidis, 2021. "Hedging uncertainty with cryptocurrencies: Is bitcoin your best bet?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 815-837, December.
    6. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. Ahmed, Faroque & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Sohag, Kazi & Islam, Md. Monirul & Zeqiraj, Veton, 2024. "Global, local, or glocal? Unravelling the interplay of geopolitical risks and financial stress," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Zhang, Yulian & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2022. "A connectedness analysis among BRICS’s geopolitical risks and the US macroeconomy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-203.
    9. Achraf Ghorbel & Wajdi Frikha & Yasmine Snene Manzli, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric non-linear short- and long-run relationships between crypto-currencies and stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 387-425, September.
    10. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Górka, Joanna & Hemmings, Danial & Zaremba, Adam, 2024. "Uncertainty and cryptocurrency returns: A lesson from turbulent times," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    11. Narayan, Shivani & Kumar, Dilip, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness and risk spillover among cryptocurrencies and other asset classes," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    12. Hsu, Shu-Han & Sheu, Chwen & Yoon, Jiho, 2021. "Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Sangyup Choi & Junhyeok Shin, 2020. "Brave New World? Bitcoin is not the New Gold: Understanding Cryptocurrency Price Dynamics," Working papers 2020rwp-167, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    14. Kyriazis, Nikolaos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis & Corbet, Shaen, 2023. "Can cryptocurrencies provide a viable hedging mechanism for benchmark index investors?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2024. "Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Ştefan Cristian Gherghina & Liliana Nicoleta Simionescu, 2023. "Exploring the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 pandemic news on the cryptocurrency market: evidence from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach and frequency domain causality," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-58, December.
    17. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "The role of the carbon market in relation to the cryptocurrency market: Only diversification or more?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2019. "Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 511-518.
    19. Jin, Changlun & Tian, Xiujuan, 2024. "Enhanced safe-haven status of Bitcoin: Evidence from the Silicon Valley Bank collapse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:60:y:2024:i:14:p:3254-3270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.